Avery Cheeseman

As the Earth continues to warm and climate change further accelerates, threatening all life on this planet, we see certain years with more severe weather. Climate change brings about more than just warming; it brings about weather instability and more extreme weather events. This year in particular, the whole world is subject to the possibility of a super El Niño. 

An El Niño is when extremely warm ocean water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean replace normally colder waters. There have been about five super El Niño since the 1950s. They usually take place every 10 to 12 years but are becoming increasingly more volatile and dangerous to humans and other living beings due to climate change. According to Simmone Shah in a Times article earlier this week, a super El Niño “occurs when average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise at least 2°C.”

This extreme warming event can have drastic consequences for the whole world. In particular, looking at the more narrow scope of the United States, it is likely that this year’s super El Niño will amplify heat waves, create a less impactful hurricane season, and pose a huge risk of flooding, especially in areas closer to the equator. All of these possible abiotic factor changes due to the super El Niño this year mean not so great things for the climate.

This year’s El Niño could seriously put us in a much worse position regarding climate change. CNN writer Andrew Freedman describes the effects of the coming El Niño in connection to climate change as, “If climate change is like ascending an escalator, with some years warmer than others, an El Niño year is equivalent to jumping up and down while riding on that escalator—reaching record new heights, albeit briefly.” Which basically means that we are pushing new abiotic weather extremes that we haven’t seen before, if only for a really brief yet impactful period of time.

As we look forward to the future, the looming threat of a super El Niño this year can seem really daunting. There is always a possibility that this year’s super El Niño will fail to live up to expectations or die down completely. Meteorologists are constantly monitoring the situation, and more details will be released to the public as more is understood about the upcoming extreme weather event. This is not a death sentence for every single living being, but it’s still a really important thing to monitor, as it can create a positive feedback loop with the acceleration of climate change going forward.